Abstract: Innovations in technology, business formats and models promote the emergence of emerging industries, and the differentiated development paths of emerging industries have obvious laws. Existing studies have paid too much attention to government support and supervision issues in the development of emerging industries, while relatively neglecting the type analysis and influencing factors of their development paths. Uncertainty is the core feature of emerging industries. Drawing lessons from Douglas North’s analysis framework on dealing with uncertainty, this article chooses "value consensus" and "technical determination" as two important points for understanding and analyzing the development path of emerging industries. Dimension, based on four typical cases of blockchain, unmanned driving, sharing economy and financial technology, outlines four paths for the development of emerging industries: value-led exponential growth, technology-supported logarithmic growth, and value-driven technology dual-driven Linear growth and tortuous growth under the adjustment of value consensus. The study found that value consensus is the internal driving force for the development of emerging industries, while technological certainty is its direct restriction, and the government's role is embedded in the development of emerging industries to play a guiding and regulating role. This article attempts to establish an explanatory framework for the development of emerging industries, which is of positive significance for understanding and understanding the differentiated development paths of emerging industries from "0" to "1".