• 中国科学学与科技政策研究会
  • 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
  • 清华大学科学技术与社会研究中心
ISSN 1003-2053 CN 11-1805/G3

科学学研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 1076-1087.

• 技术创新与制度创新 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口结构与区域科技创新差距的时空演化研究

邵汉华1,王庆祥2,何铿辉1,3   

  1. 1. 南昌大学经济管理学院
    2. 王庆祥
    3.
  • 收稿日期:2023-02-20 修回日期:2023-06-09 出版日期:2024-05-15 发布日期:2024-05-15
  • 通讯作者: 王庆祥
  • 基金资助:
    人口结构与创新发展的区域差异:时空演化、驱动机理及路径优化;教育人力资本与数字经济耦合发展的时空分异及协调机制研究;长江经济带绿色创新对减污降 碳协同增效的驱动与路径选择 研究

Spatial and temporal evolution of population structure and regional technological innovation gap

  • Received:2023-02-20 Revised:2023-06-09 Online:2024-05-15 Published:2024-05-15

摘要: 区域科技创新是新时代区域高质量发展的重要引擎,审慎人口结构深刻变化下区域科技创新差距时空演化,对推进新时期区域高质量协调发展有重要意义。本文基于2001-2020年中国31个省份数据,分析我国区域科技创新差距的演化态势,通过QAP分析法综合考察人口结构即人口老龄化、人力资本、人口密度和人口城镇化对我国区域科技创新差距的影响。研究发现:(1)中国区域科技创新存在显著的空间非均衡性,表现为东部-西部-中部-东北依次递减态势。(2)从人口结构维度来看,人口城镇化的空间不平衡在一定程度上将扩大区域科技创新差距,人力资本和人口密度对区域科技创新差异有显著负向影响(3)从时空演变来看,人力资本对区域科技创新差距的负向影响在波动中呈现出扩大态势,人口城镇化对区域科技创新差距一直发挥着正向作用,人口密度和人口老龄化对区域科技创新差距的影响在不同时期内表现出异质性,人口城镇化、人力资本和人口老龄化分别是东、中、西部人口结构影响区域科技创新差距的主要因素。

Abstract: China is currently undergoing a critical transition from a population quantity dividend to a population quality dividend. Given the significant changes in population structure, it is of great significance to examine the characteristics of regional technological innovation gaps across different regions and periods in order to promote high-quality coordinated development. This paper analyzes data from 31 provinces in China collected between 2000 and 2020 to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of the country's science and technology innovation gap. The impact of population structure on this gap is also examined through QAP analysis, including the effects of population ageing, human capital, population density, and population urbanization. The study found that:(1) There is a significant spatial imbalance in regional scientific and technological innovation in China, with a decreasing trend from east to west to central to northeast. (2) Urbanization to some extent widens the gap between regional scientific and technological innovation. Human capital and population density have a significant negative impact on the regional science and technology innovation gap. (3) From a spatio-temporal perspective, the negative impact of human capital on the regional technological innovation gap shows an increasing trend of fluctuation. Population urbanization has played a positive role in narrowing the regional innovation gap in science and technology. Finally, the effects of population density and population ageing on the regional science and technology innovation gap show heterogeneity in different periods. Population urbanization, human capital and population aging are the main factors affecting the regional technological innovation gap in the eastern, central and western regions, respectively.